{
 "schema": "qotsa-arc-development-v1",
 "status": "exploratory_post_hoc",
 "inputs": {
  "readings": "results/subtopic-readings.json",
  "readings_sha256": "a09c4d454361ba7ce26a37be130ac27157481d987923f25d3ad97339abf60c0b",
  "manifest": "corpus-manifest.json",
  "manifest_sha256": "4cf60987899301553c6c54696282d58dd5157eb98be9d9cbfc197f2843edb971",
  "rubric_sha256": "c04d78594c501f6b606de7d4a1afac5824f622dbf8854a529f3d0fb19f8bc675"
 },
 "definitions": {
  "arc_song": "At least one subtopic marked present with development attempted, reported_change or revaluation.",
  "strict_arc_song": "Same, restricted to reported_change or revaluation.",
  "eras": {
   "temprana": [
    1998,
    2002
   ],
   "media": [
    2005,
    2007
   ],
   "tardía": [
    2013,
    2023
   ]
  },
  "eras_note": "Chosen after viewing the album series; match common band periodization but are not pre-registered.",
  "readers": {
   "Mini": "gpt-5.4-mini",
   "Haiku": "claude-haiku-4-5-20251001"
  },
  "repeat_fraction": "Manifest field: share of sung lines that repeat another line in the same lyric."
 },
 "form_by_album": [
  {
   "year": 1998,
   "album": "Queens of the Stone Age",
   "n": 10,
   "median_words": 132.0,
   "median_repeat_fraction": 0.3549,
   "mean_repeat_fraction": 0.344,
   "repeat_fraction_by_song": [
    0.3871,
    0.4444,
    0.4762,
    0.1818,
    0.4571,
    0.25,
    0.3636,
    0.3333,
    0.2,
    0.3462
   ]
  },
  {
   "year": 2000,
   "album": "Rated R",
   "n": 10,
   "median_words": 152.0,
   "median_repeat_fraction": 0.3605,
   "mean_repeat_fraction": 0.3686,
   "repeat_fraction_by_song": [
    0.8333,
    0.4474,
    0.0385,
    0.625,
    0.0909,
    0.6129,
    0.2174,
    0.4167,
    0.1,
    0.3044
   ]
  },
  {
   "year": 2002,
   "album": "Songs for the Deaf",
   "n": 14,
   "median_words": 168.5,
   "median_repeat_fraction": 0.3441,
   "mean_repeat_fraction": 0.3265,
   "repeat_fraction_by_song": [
    0.3913,
    0.2647,
    0.3778,
    0.1177,
    0.5,
    0.1905,
    0.575,
    0.3103,
    0.5,
    0.4839,
    0.4688,
    0.1429,
    0.1579,
    0.0909
   ]
  },
  {
   "year": 2005,
   "album": "Lullabies to Paralyze",
   "n": 14,
   "median_words": 158.5,
   "median_repeat_fraction": 0.2638,
   "mean_repeat_fraction": 0.2644,
   "repeat_fraction_by_song": [
    0.0,
    0.0833,
    0.4643,
    0.45,
    0.1622,
    0.5333,
    0.2381,
    0.2258,
    0.3214,
    0.0,
    0.125,
    0.2941,
    0.2895,
    0.5151
   ]
  },
  {
   "year": 2007,
   "album": "Era Vulgaris",
   "n": 11,
   "median_words": 163.0,
   "median_repeat_fraction": 0.2157,
   "mean_repeat_fraction": 0.2415,
   "repeat_fraction_by_song": [
    0.0,
    0.4615,
    0.2157,
    0.2,
    0.2368,
    0.2059,
    0.359,
    0.2667,
    0.125,
    0.375,
    0.2105
   ]
  },
  {
   "year": 2013,
   "album": "...Like Clockwork",
   "n": 10,
   "median_words": 169.0,
   "median_repeat_fraction": 0.1762,
   "mean_repeat_fraction": 0.1846,
   "repeat_fraction_by_song": [
    0.04,
    0.2308,
    0.1429,
    0.2,
    0.3182,
    0.0976,
    0.1786,
    0.15,
    0.3137,
    0.1739
   ]
  },
  {
   "year": 2017,
   "album": "Villains",
   "n": 9,
   "median_words": 243.0,
   "median_repeat_fraction": 0.2941,
   "mean_repeat_fraction": 0.2718,
   "repeat_fraction_by_song": [
    0.2174,
    0.2889,
    0.1915,
    0.3889,
    0.0612,
    0.3044,
    0.325,
    0.375,
    0.2941
   ]
  },
  {
   "year": 2023,
   "album": "In Times New Roman...",
   "n": 10,
   "median_words": 218.5,
   "median_repeat_fraction": 0.1713,
   "mean_repeat_fraction": 0.2088,
   "repeat_fraction_by_song": [
    0.125,
    0.04,
    0.1304,
    0.3044,
    0.0476,
    0.069,
    0.3704,
    0.3226,
    0.4667,
    0.2121
   ]
  }
 ],
 "arc_by_album": [
  {
   "year": 1998,
   "album": "Queens of the Stone Age",
   "n": 10,
   "Mini": {
    "songs_with_arc": 0,
    "share": 0.0,
    "wilson95": [
     -0.0,
     0.2775
    ],
    "strict_songs": 0,
    "with_ambiguous_songs": 0,
    "present_labels": 11,
    "labels_with_arc": 0,
    "label_share": 0.0,
    "development_counts": {
     "kept": 10,
     "unclear": 1
    }
   },
   "Haiku": {
    "songs_with_arc": 2,
    "share": 0.2,
    "wilson95": [
     0.0567,
     0.5098
    ],
    "strict_songs": 0,
    "with_ambiguous_songs": 2,
    "present_labels": 28,
    "labels_with_arc": 2,
    "label_share": 0.0714,
    "development_counts": {
     "kept": 26,
     "attempted": 2
    }
   },
   "both": 0,
   "either": 2
  },
  {
   "year": 2000,
   "album": "Rated R",
   "n": 10,
   "Mini": {
    "songs_with_arc": 1,
    "share": 0.1,
    "wilson95": [
     0.0179,
     0.4042
    ],
    "strict_songs": 0,
    "with_ambiguous_songs": 1,
    "present_labels": 6,
    "labels_with_arc": 1,
    "label_share": 0.1667,
    "development_counts": {
     "kept": 5,
     "attempted": 1
    }
   },
   "Haiku": {
    "songs_with_arc": 3,
    "share": 0.3,
    "wilson95": [
     0.1078,
     0.6032
    ],
    "strict_songs": 0,
    "with_ambiguous_songs": 3,
    "present_labels": 25,
    "labels_with_arc": 4,
    "label_share": 0.16,
    "development_counts": {
     "kept": 21,
     "attempted": 4
    }
   },
   "both": 1,
   "either": 3
  },
  {
   "year": 2002,
   "album": "Songs for the Deaf",
   "n": 14,
   "Mini": {
    "songs_with_arc": 1,
    "share": 0.0714,
    "wilson95": [
     0.0127,
     0.3147
    ],
    "strict_songs": 1,
    "with_ambiguous_songs": 1,
    "present_labels": 24,
    "labels_with_arc": 1,
    "label_share": 0.0417,
    "development_counts": {
     "kept": 21,
     "unclear": 2,
     "revaluation": 1
    }
   },
   "Haiku": {
    "songs_with_arc": 5,
    "share": 0.3571,
    "wilson95": [
     0.1634,
     0.6124
    ],
    "strict_songs": 2,
    "with_ambiguous_songs": 5,
    "present_labels": 44,
    "labels_with_arc": 7,
    "label_share": 0.1591,
    "development_counts": {
     "kept": 37,
     "revaluation": 1,
     "reported_change": 2,
     "attempted": 4
    }
   },
   "both": 1,
   "either": 5
  },
  {
   "year": 2005,
   "album": "Lullabies to Paralyze",
   "n": 14,
   "Mini": {
    "songs_with_arc": 1,
    "share": 0.0714,
    "wilson95": [
     0.0127,
     0.3147
    ],
    "strict_songs": 0,
    "with_ambiguous_songs": 1,
    "present_labels": 23,
    "labels_with_arc": 1,
    "label_share": 0.0435,
    "development_counts": {
     "kept": 21,
     "unclear": 1,
     "attempted": 1
    }
   },
   "Haiku": {
    "songs_with_arc": 6,
    "share": 0.4286,
    "wilson95": [
     0.2138,
     0.6741
    ],
    "strict_songs": 0,
    "with_ambiguous_songs": 6,
    "present_labels": 38,
    "labels_with_arc": 7,
    "label_share": 0.1842,
    "development_counts": {
     "kept": 31,
     "attempted": 7
    }
   },
   "both": 0,
   "either": 7
  },
  {
   "year": 2007,
   "album": "Era Vulgaris",
   "n": 11,
   "Mini": {
    "songs_with_arc": 1,
    "share": 0.0909,
    "wilson95": [
     0.0162,
     0.3774
    ],
    "strict_songs": 1,
    "with_ambiguous_songs": 1,
    "present_labels": 19,
    "labels_with_arc": 1,
    "label_share": 0.0526,
    "development_counts": {
     "kept": 16,
     "reported_change": 1,
     "unclear": 2
    }
   },
   "Haiku": {
    "songs_with_arc": 5,
    "share": 0.4545,
    "wilson95": [
     0.2127,
     0.7199
    ],
    "strict_songs": 1,
    "with_ambiguous_songs": 5,
    "present_labels": 36,
    "labels_with_arc": 8,
    "label_share": 0.2222,
    "development_counts": {
     "kept": 28,
     "revaluation": 1,
     "attempted": 7
    }
   },
   "both": 1,
   "either": 5
  },
  {
   "year": 2013,
   "album": "...Like Clockwork",
   "n": 10,
   "Mini": {
    "songs_with_arc": 3,
    "share": 0.3,
    "wilson95": [
     0.1078,
     0.6032
    ],
    "strict_songs": 2,
    "with_ambiguous_songs": 3,
    "present_labels": 24,
    "labels_with_arc": 4,
    "label_share": 0.1667,
    "development_counts": {
     "kept": 20,
     "reported_change": 2,
     "attempted": 2
    }
   },
   "Haiku": {
    "songs_with_arc": 7,
    "share": 0.7,
    "wilson95": [
     0.3968,
     0.8922
    ],
    "strict_songs": 4,
    "with_ambiguous_songs": 7,
    "present_labels": 35,
    "labels_with_arc": 12,
    "label_share": 0.3429,
    "development_counts": {
     "kept": 23,
     "attempted": 8,
     "reported_change": 2,
     "revaluation": 2
    }
   },
   "both": 3,
   "either": 7
  },
  {
   "year": 2017,
   "album": "Villains",
   "n": 9,
   "Mini": {
    "songs_with_arc": 5,
    "share": 0.5556,
    "wilson95": [
     0.2666,
     0.8112
    ],
    "strict_songs": 3,
    "with_ambiguous_songs": 5,
    "present_labels": 24,
    "labels_with_arc": 8,
    "label_share": 0.3333,
    "development_counts": {
     "kept": 15,
     "revaluation": 3,
     "attempted": 5,
     "unclear": 1
    }
   },
   "Haiku": {
    "songs_with_arc": 7,
    "share": 0.7778,
    "wilson95": [
     0.4526,
     0.9368
    ],
    "strict_songs": 2,
    "with_ambiguous_songs": 7,
    "present_labels": 34,
    "labels_with_arc": 12,
    "label_share": 0.3529,
    "development_counts": {
     "kept": 22,
     "revaluation": 2,
     "attempted": 10
    }
   },
   "both": 5,
   "either": 7
  },
  {
   "year": 2023,
   "album": "In Times New Roman...",
   "n": 10,
   "Mini": {
    "songs_with_arc": 4,
    "share": 0.4,
    "wilson95": [
     0.1682,
     0.6873
    ],
    "strict_songs": 1,
    "with_ambiguous_songs": 4,
    "present_labels": 22,
    "labels_with_arc": 4,
    "label_share": 0.1818,
    "development_counts": {
     "attempted": 3,
     "unclear": 3,
     "kept": 15,
     "reported_change": 1
    }
   },
   "Haiku": {
    "songs_with_arc": 4,
    "share": 0.4,
    "wilson95": [
     0.1682,
     0.6873
    ],
    "strict_songs": 2,
    "with_ambiguous_songs": 4,
    "present_labels": 39,
    "labels_with_arc": 6,
    "label_share": 0.1538,
    "development_counts": {
     "kept": 33,
     "revaluation": 1,
     "reported_change": 2,
     "attempted": 3
    }
   },
   "both": 3,
   "either": 5
  }
 ],
 "arc_within_length_terciles": {
  "Mini": {
   "media · corta": {
    "arc": 2,
    "n": 11
   },
   "media · larga": {
    "arc": 0,
    "n": 8
   },
   "media · media": {
    "arc": 0,
    "n": 6
   },
   "tardía · corta": {
    "arc": 1,
    "n": 6
   },
   "tardía · larga": {
    "arc": 10,
    "n": 17
   },
   "tardía · media": {
    "arc": 1,
    "n": 6
   },
   "temprana · corta": {
    "arc": 1,
    "n": 14
   },
   "temprana · larga": {
    "arc": 0,
    "n": 4
   },
   "temprana · media": {
    "arc": 1,
    "n": 16
   }
  },
  "Haiku": {
   "media · corta": {
    "arc": 5,
    "n": 11
   },
   "media · larga": {
    "arc": 4,
    "n": 8
   },
   "media · media": {
    "arc": 2,
    "n": 6
   },
   "tardía · corta": {
    "arc": 2,
    "n": 6
   },
   "tardía · larga": {
    "arc": 12,
    "n": 17
   },
   "tardía · media": {
    "arc": 4,
    "n": 6
   },
   "temprana · corta": {
    "arc": 5,
    "n": 14
   },
   "temprana · larga": {
    "arc": 1,
    "n": 4
   },
   "temprana · media": {
    "arc": 4,
    "n": 16
   }
  }
 },
 "models": {
  "Mini": {
   "year_only": {
    "n": 88,
    "terms": {
     "const": {
      "coef": -3.0725,
      "odds_ratio": 0.046,
      "ci95_odds_ratio": [
       0.014,
       0.155
      ],
      "p_wald": 0.0
     },
     "decade": {
      "coef": 1.3016,
      "odds_ratio": 3.675,
      "ci95_odds_ratio": [
       1.753,
       7.704
      ],
      "p_wald": 0.0006
     }
    },
    "pseudo_r2": 0.1649
   },
   "year_length_repetition": {
    "n": 88,
    "terms": {
     "const": {
      "coef": -11.9467,
      "odds_ratio": 0.0,
      "ci95_odds_ratio": [
       0.0,
       0.178
      ],
      "p_wald": 0.0219
     },
     "decade": {
      "coef": 0.8544,
      "odds_ratio": 2.35,
      "ci95_odds_ratio": [
       0.975,
       5.663
      ],
      "p_wald": 0.057
     },
     "log_words": {
      "coef": 1.932,
      "odds_ratio": 6.904,
      "ci95_odds_ratio": [
       0.873,
       54.599
      ],
      "p_wald": 0.0671
     },
     "repeat_fraction": {
      "coef": -2.7257,
      "odds_ratio": 0.066,
      "ci95_odds_ratio": [
       0.001,
       7.638
      ],
      "p_wald": 0.2616
     }
    },
    "pseudo_r2": 0.2139
   },
   "era_length_repetition": {
    "n": 88,
    "terms": {
     "const": {
      "coef": -11.917,
      "odds_ratio": 0.0,
      "ci95_odds_ratio": [
       0.0,
       0.223
      ],
      "p_wald": 0.025
     },
     "era_media": {
      "coef": -0.1922,
      "odds_ratio": 0.825,
      "ci95_odds_ratio": [
       0.097,
       6.997
      ],
      "p_wald": 0.8601
     },
     "era_tardia": {
      "coef": 1.4267,
      "odds_ratio": 4.165,
      "ci95_odds_ratio": [
       0.639,
       27.129
      ],
      "p_wald": 0.1356
     },
     "log_words": {
      "coef": 2.0014,
      "odds_ratio": 7.4,
      "ci95_odds_ratio": [
       0.891,
       61.448
      ],
      "p_wald": 0.0639
     },
     "repeat_fraction": {
      "coef": -2.7725,
      "odds_ratio": 0.063,
      "ci95_odds_ratio": [
       0.0,
       8.654
      ],
      "p_wald": 0.2704
     }
    },
    "pseudo_r2": 0.2288
   },
   "permutation_within_length_terciles": {
    "observed_late_minus_early": 0.355,
    "one_sided_p": 0.0024,
    "permutations": 20000,
    "strata": "terciles of word count"
   }
  },
  "Haiku": {
   "year_only": {
    "n": 88,
    "terms": {
     "const": {
      "coef": -0.7905,
      "odds_ratio": 0.454,
      "ci95_odds_ratio": [
       0.227,
       0.905
      ],
      "p_wald": 0.0248
     },
     "decade": {
      "coef": 0.5794,
      "odds_ratio": 1.785,
      "ci95_odds_ratio": [
       1.026,
       3.106
      ],
      "p_wald": 0.0404
     }
    },
    "pseudo_r2": 0.0364
   },
   "year_length_repetition": {
    "n": 88,
    "terms": {
     "const": {
      "coef": -6.7437,
      "odds_ratio": 0.001,
      "ci95_odds_ratio": [
       0.0,
       1.618
      ],
      "p_wald": 0.0673
     },
     "decade": {
      "coef": 0.1228,
      "odds_ratio": 1.131,
      "ci95_odds_ratio": [
       0.571,
       2.24
      ],
      "p_wald": 0.7246
     },
     "log_words": {
      "coef": 1.4127,
      "odds_ratio": 4.107,
      "ci95_odds_ratio": [
       0.905,
       18.63
      ],
      "p_wald": 0.0671
     },
     "repeat_fraction": {
      "coef": -3.1593,
      "odds_ratio": 0.042,
      "ci95_odds_ratio": [
       0.002,
       1.03
      ],
      "p_wald": 0.0521
     }
    },
    "pseudo_r2": 0.0837
   },
   "era_length_repetition": {
    "n": 88,
    "terms": {
     "const": {
      "coef": -5.8304,
      "odds_ratio": 0.003,
      "ci95_odds_ratio": [
       0.0,
       3.841
      ],
      "p_wald": 0.1113
     },
     "era_media": {
      "coef": 0.2702,
      "odds_ratio": 1.31,
      "ci95_odds_ratio": [
       0.412,
       4.17
      ],
      "p_wald": 0.6474
     },
     "era_tardia": {
      "coef": 0.6371,
      "odds_ratio": 1.891,
      "ci95_odds_ratio": [
       0.528,
       6.776
      ],
      "p_wald": 0.328
     },
     "log_words": {
      "coef": 1.1788,
      "odds_ratio": 3.25,
      "ci95_odds_ratio": [
       0.733,
       14.422
      ],
      "p_wald": 0.121
     },
     "repeat_fraction": {
      "coef": -2.7428,
      "odds_ratio": 0.064,
      "ci95_odds_ratio": [
       0.003,
       1.63
      ],
      "p_wald": 0.0962
     }
    },
    "pseudo_r2": 0.0906
   },
   "permutation_within_length_terciles": {
    "observed_late_minus_early": 0.3266,
    "one_sided_p": 0.0272,
    "permutations": 20000,
    "strata": "terciles of word count"
   }
  },
  "Ambos": {
   "year_length_repetition": {
    "n": 88,
    "terms": {
     "const": {
      "coef": -12.4797,
      "odds_ratio": 0.0,
      "ci95_odds_ratio": [
       0.0,
       0.164
      ],
      "p_wald": 0.0219
     },
     "decade": {
      "coef": 0.787,
      "odds_ratio": 2.197,
      "ci95_odds_ratio": [
       0.871,
       5.541
      ],
      "p_wald": 0.0955
     },
     "log_words": {
      "coef": 2.012,
      "odds_ratio": 7.478,
      "ci95_odds_ratio": [
       0.862,
       64.856
      ],
      "p_wald": 0.0679
     },
     "repeat_fraction": {
      "coef": -2.7166,
      "odds_ratio": 0.066,
      "ci95_odds_ratio": [
       0.0,
       9.755
      ],
      "p_wald": 0.2864
     }
    },
    "pseudo_r2": 0.205
   },
   "permutation_within_length_terciles": {
    "observed_late_minus_early": 0.3205,
    "one_sided_p": 0.0034,
    "permutations": 20000,
    "strata": "terciles of word count"
   }
  }
 },
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    "only_reaffirmation_or_juxtaposition": 2,
    "desired_or_promised_change": 5
   },
   "permutation_within_length_terciles": {
    "observed_late_minus_early": 0.284,
    "one_sided_p": 0.0131,
    "permutations": 20000,
    "strata": "terciles of word count"
   },
   "promised_change_permutation": {
    "observed_late_minus_early": 0.0842,
    "one_sided_p": 0.1278,
    "permutations": 20000,
    "strata": "terciles of word count"
   }
  },
  "Haiku": {
   "temprana": {
    "n": 34,
    "moving_arc_label": 9,
    "only_reaffirmation_or_juxtaposition": 18,
    "desired_or_promised_change": 5
   },
   "media": {
    "n": 25,
    "moving_arc_label": 3,
    "only_reaffirmation_or_juxtaposition": 22,
    "desired_or_promised_change": 3
   },
   "tardía": {
    "n": 29,
    "moving_arc_label": 7,
    "only_reaffirmation_or_juxtaposition": 19,
    "desired_or_promised_change": 5
   },
   "permutation_within_length_terciles": {
    "observed_late_minus_early": -0.0233,
    "one_sided_p": 0.6291,
    "permutations": 20000,
    "strata": "terciles of word count"
   },
   "promised_change_permutation": {
    "observed_late_minus_early": 0.0254,
    "one_sided_p": 0.4759,
    "permutations": 20000,
    "strata": "terciles of word count"
   }
  }
 }
}